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by Ryan James
The BREAKDOWN
(updated 3/9/2008)
We start this year's Section Selections with the biggest class, AAAA. The winner of the third Hopkins-Minnetonka class is expected to take the state title but there are challenges ahead for the winner after another legendary clash. Questions are all around this year as fans wonder: Can Mayo make the run this year? Can Burnsville beat Eastview a third time? Is St. Cloud Tech for real? Can Osseo make a run without Carrington Tankson? Who is going to come out of the brutal section 4AAAA?
Mayo is a big favorite to win this section as they are 9-0 in games against their potential section opponents and their record is 6 ½ games better then the Winona's second best record. Winona is the second seed with Owatonna the third although the Huskies did beat Winona twice this year.
This is a fairly deep section that will have several exciting match-ups starting with round one but the anticipated final game is a major match-up between EP and Shakopee. The Sabers are an experienced, well-coached team with only four losses this year and Bruce Kugath is well schooled in the art of post-season play.
Burnsville is the top seed and they earned it beating Eastview twice this year in overtime. I think the theory of "beating somebody three times in one year is an extremely tough thing to do" is too much overused but I'm going to use it here. The Lightning had Burnsville twice this year but let the game slip away. In the third match-up I think they have the depth and several weapons to get the win and get to state.
The best section out there is right here. The semi-finals of this section will once again be played at a higher level then the majority of the games at state. Five teams with 20 plus wins and you just don't get a better first round match-up then Tartan vs Central. In the end I think Sibley can get past Stillwater a second time and then the final should be interesting. Sibley could face Tartan who they have beaten the last five times, the could play Central, or that last game could be Cretin-Derham Hall who has knocked out Sibley the last two seasons. After facing such a tough schedule this year I think Sibley is battle prepared to make their first state tournament ever but Michael Floyd is playing at an elite level.
Osseo may have lost their best player in Carrington Tankson but they are still playing at a very high level crushing formidable Maple Grove and Elk River teams recently. Right now Zach Peterson is playing very well, Ryan Spading and Jayvin Reyonlds have put up big scoring numbers in Tankson's absence, and San Dower is staring to tap his big potential. Cooper could challenge although they looked awful the last time they played a top team. Then there is Mounds View who has a great chance to get back to state now that Tankson is out but do they have enough to beat Cooper and Osseo in the final two games? That seems a tough task and Osseo is coming together with their best player out.
This pick is just on feel alone. Minnetonka did just beat the Royals behind a major performance from Anthony Tucker in a big time environment. And the Skippers defeated Hopkins last year in sections. But somebody told me recently that Hopkins has won 20 of the last 22 times these teams have played and in last week's loss the Royals had several turnovers that were uncharacteristic of what they have shown this season. I feel Hopkins comes back for the win in another great game in this rivalry. But if Tucker gets hot again it may be the year of the Skippers! And Minnetonka is the preseason pick of the Breakdown.
This is a tough one to figure out. Forest Lake is the top seed and they earned it with a 17-9 record and wins this year over Stillwater, Cretin-Derham Hall, Como Park, St. Cloud Apollo, Rocori, and others. But after beating Stillwater and CDH in back to back games the Rangers fell to Park. So can they win three straight games? Blaine has won seven of their last ten contests and they beat Forest Lake by 12 in their season opener. But this just feels like the run of the Rangers.
Quietly in the big picture although not to their opponents the Bison have won 17 of their 19 games and they come into sections red hot. It will be a tough task having to go through a likely road of Brainerd, Moorhead, and St Cloud Tech but the Bison know all about making runs. And they are looking for revenge from that early season three-point loss to Tech. The Bison should have the experience and confidence to get it done. |
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